IEA: Oil, Gas Appetite Growing – What's the Impact?

Generated Title: IEA's Climate "Oopsie": Turns Out Oil's Still King (Sorry, Not Sorry)

So, the IEA, bless their hearts, just dropped a new model. And guess what? Turns out, their whole "everyone's gonna ditch oil" fantasy might’ve been a tad premature. Apparently, oil and gas demand could keep chugging along until 2050. I mean, who saw that coming? (Everyone with half a brain, that's who.)

The "Oops, We Were Wrong" Model

They used to push this rosy picture of everyone hopping into EVs and shutting down coal plants by next Tuesday. But now, because of, uh, gestures vaguely at the US and maybe EVs not taking off as fast as they’d hoped, they're dusting off the "oil is forever" scenario. You know, the one where demand hits 113 million barrels a day by 2050. From 100 million this year. According to a recent report, the IEA: World’s Appetite for Oil, Gas to Grow.

Give me a break.

What's changed? Not the actual trajectory of the planet, that's for damn sure. It’s just… policies. And maybe some wishful thinking about electric cars. It's like they’re surprised people aren't ditching their gas guzzlers when gas is still cheaper and more convenient for half the country. Color me shocked.

And the LNG? Oh boy, the LNG. All these new projects coming online, boosting global supply by 50% by 2030. So much for transitioning to a green economy, right? It's like we're doubling down on the stuff that's frying the planet.

Speaking of surprises, Australia is supposedly killing it with solar. 5.2 GW installed this year. That's more than they installed up to 2015. Which, okay, good for them. But they’re not even in the top ten for annual installations. Since, like, the 90s. Talk about a participation trophy.

Sunshine and Empty Promises

Australia's got solar panels on almost half of its freestanding homes. Queensland and South Australia leading the charge, Tasmania lagging behind because… less sun? Who would have thunk. And South Australia is apparently swimming in so much solar power that they’re exporting it to their neighbors.

The [IEA report] (offcourse, they didn't link to it) also mentions that they're reclassifying "residential" solar systems as up to 15 kW now. Used to be 3 kW back in 2012. Progress? Or just bigger houses with bigger roofs?

All that sounds promising, but then you get to the utility-scale stuff. They’ve got ambitions, sure. 10 to 30 GW. But "connection approvals, congestion management and fragmented access arrangements increase costs and risks." Translation: Bureaucracy and red tape are strangling the industry.

And frankly, who is surprised?

I mean, Australia’s doing better than most, I guess. They’re in the top ten for total installed capacity and have a world-leading installation rate per capita. Solar supposedly meets over 20% of their electricity demands. But is it enough? Is it fast enough? With the IEA simultaneously patting them on the back while admitting the world's still addicted to oil, it feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe there's some secret tech breakthrough coming that'll make oil obsolete overnight. Maybe pigs will fly. Maybe the politicians will start acting in the best interest of the planet instead of their donors.

We're Officially Screwed